IT spending forecasts may be more art than science, but corporate earnings reports don't lie. (Well, they're not supposed to lie, and of course they fudge. But you know what I mean.)

And the news from IT vendors is not good. SAP continues to decline to provide earnings guidance. "SAP Co-Chief Executive Officer Henning Kagermann said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Oct. 28 that he didn't anticipate that 2009 would be better than 2008. He said customers were 'rethinking' their spending plans."

Meanwhile: Microsoft scales back its expansion plans, and layoffs hit Logitech.

This kind of stuff probably tells you more about real IT spending than anyone's crystal ball.